Overview More investors and different markets are reacting to the ‘credit crunch’ and are beginning to really understand the ramifications of unwinding the ‘carry trade’. Central bankers are coming round to the fact that a ‘zero interest rate policy’ is probably warranted, maybe ‘quantitative easing’ as well, and in a surprise move Switzerland halved their target rate to 1.00% from 2.00%. The rush into Treasuries continues, the yield on three-month TBills dropping to just 1 basis point,
American Session EUR/USD - Euro Dollar 1,2584. EUR USD moves without trend and swings around exponential moving averages (EMA 50 and 100). The volatility is high. ForexTrend 4H, daily (Mataf Trend Indicator) is in a bearish configuration. The price should continue to move in 1,2430 / 1,2690 range. We won't take a position. Resistances 1,2620 - 1,2690 Supports 1,2485 - 1,2430 more information on EUR/USD - Euro Dollar Click Here GBP/USD - British Pound Dollar 1,4993. GBP USD broke 1,4890
Action Insight Mid-Day Report Dollar and Yen Continue to Retreat as Improved Sentiments Economic data takes a back seat again today as investors sentiment turned follow the speculations of Citigroup's sale. Asian stock markets shrugged off a lower open and rebounded strongly. The strength carried on to European markets which could pass on to the US markets too. Dollar and yen retreat from yesterday's rally following rebound in the stock markets. Though, from a short term point of view, the up
HIGHLIGHTS: EURUSD: Break Out Of The Symmetrical Consolidation To Triangle Seen - While EUR remains trapped in its triangle pattern as well as the 1.2330 and 1.3298 levels, break out of the mentioned triangle continues to dominate the pair’s price action... USDCAD: Looks To Take Out The 1.3018 Level -Our call for a return to the 1.3018 level, representing its YTD high continues to pan out Thursday with further strength pushing the pair through the 1.2379 levels, its Oct 31’08 high and its Nov
After some minor downward correction yesterday, the dollar traded more strongly versus the major pairs during all of Asian trading, especially against the Swiss franc where a 100 basis points cut in interest rates weakened the CHF against the euro as well. The Greenback was given additional support by oil prices dropping below $50 / barrel. Short term in overbought condition now, the USD started a downward correction in early European trading, which might well continue in today’s trading
Forex News and Events: The Dollar dropped against Yen on Thursday, pushed by Wall Street's plunge as fears of a worldwide downturn that was much deeper than initially thought made investors shift in the safer assets. Meanwhile, Dollar and Yen rose against the Euro and other high yielding currencies as investors sold risky assets such as stocks and commodities financed by loans denominated in the Dollar and the Japanese unit. Currency investors continued to track movements in the US stock
EURUSD is trying hard to be on the positive side, but every time there is no luck. And todays another attempt could be good opportunity for bears. To encourage the bulls price should firmly present itself above negative trend line. For a moment we are still in the negative territory.
The greenback and yen rose against the euro and currencies of nations with high interest rates, like the Australian and New Zealand dollars, as investors sold risky assets such as stocks and commodities financed by loans denominated in the U.S. dollar and the Japanese unit. Currency investors continued to track movements in the U.S. stock market, with the S&P 500 index sliding to an 11-1/2 year. The Dollar is trading around the levels of 1.2540 against the Euro, around the levels of 95.05
- We recommended three FX strategies earlier this week, see FX Strategy: Go short EUR/USD, EUR/CHF - long GBP/CAD, 18 November - The stop has been met in our short EUR/CHF recommendation and we are taking a loss of 1.32% (including carry). - The CHF weakened after the SNB's surprising 100bp rate cut but it was not before early this morning the pair saw a short-lived spike, triggering our stop. - We still believe that EUR/CHF will adjust downwards but prefer to stay on the sidelines as long as
Resistance: 1,2560/ 1,2600-10/ 1,2650/ 1,2690-2710/ 1,2755/ 1,2800-10/ 1,2865/ 1,2930 Support : 1,2480/ 1,2430/ 1,2390-00/ 1,2330-50/ 1,2280 Comment : Euro’s consolidation continues and the outlook remains the same during November. The rise in the beginning of the Us session met bears at 1,2600, who led euro to the ranges of the consolidation. Bulls gained momentum in these level, as expected. There is nothing new to add to our previous analysis. The Bollinger Bands in the 4 hour chart are
Comment: The message is sinking in and investors are moving out along the Treasury yield curve, benchmark thirty-year yields collapsing by 82 basis points in just 4 days and ten-year TNotes yielding just 175 basis points more than JGB’s, the narrowest since 1993. Three-month TBills yield 2 basis points and one wonders whether they could go to negative as they did in Switzerland years ago. Three-month Libor is 2.13% today and many now seem to be happy with a variety of currencies and maturities
EURUSD Remains poised for test of 1.2388, 13 Nov low, following decline from Wednesday's failure ahead of 1.2857, 13 Nov lower high. Meantime, a negative falling wedge drawn off 1.3300, 30 Oct recovery high unfolds, while losing 1.2329/1.2301 low may see acceleration to 1.2134 next. Back over Thursday's 1.2595 high to hint basing instead. Res: 1.2566, 1.2600, 1.2618, 1.2659 Sup: 1.2423, 1.2388, 1.2329, 1.2300 GBPUSD Bearish shooting star was left in the wake of decline from 1.5249, 19
*************************************************** Update Time: 21 Nov 2008 08:00GMT INTRA-DAY EUR/CHF CROSS OUTLOOK - +1.5400+ Despite intra-day breach of 1.5366, current re- treat fm 1.5390 suggests consolidation below there wud be seen n 1.5321 must hold for prospect of an- other rise, abv said res wud extend to 1.5400 but loss of momentum wud cap price at 1.5424. Trade fm long side with stop as indicated, break wud signal top is possibly made, 1.5280/90...
Good morning from Hamburg. Yesterday crude oil prices dipped below 50 USD, which is the lowest level since May 2005. Euro zone prices may fall for one or two months next Year, but the region is not facing deflation, said ECB governing council member Mersch in an interview. Market review The BOJ hold interest rates as expected steady at 0.3 % after rate decision today. The USD/JPY edged up 0.3 % on USD demand from Japanese importers before the long weekend in Tokyo. Short –term speculators also
INTRA-DAY AUD/USD OUTLOOK : 0.6248 Updating time : 21 Nov 2008 07:57 GMT Although aussie has risen after brief retreat n nr term rise fm 0.6075 (y'day's low) to retrace recent decline may extend gain to 0.6270/75, how- ever, reckon res at 0.6313 wud hold n yield retreat later today. Wud not chase this move n stand aside. Only be low said sup wud signal top is made, 0.6160/70... Range Forecast 0.6230 / 0.6260 Resistance/Support
INTRA-DAY GBP/USD OUTLOOK : 1.4830 Updating time : 21 Nov 2008 08:03 GMT Although cable has retreated after intra-day rise to 1.4896 n pullback to 1.4800/10 is likely, reckon downside wud be ltd to 1.4780 (prev. res) n yield rebound, abv said res wud extend gain twds 1.4926 later. Buy dips with stop as indicated, break wud pro- long choppy trading n risk 1.4740... Range Forecast 1.4805 / 1.4855 Resistance/Support R: 1.4896/1.4926/1.4996 S: 1.4788/1.4712/1.4684
EUR The pre-planned positions for sell from key resistance range were realized with attainment of basic assumed targets. OsMA trend indicator, having marked activity fall of both parties gives reasons for assumptions about incomplete rate correction period. Hence and considering the current bullish activity cycle on the analyzed chart of working period we assume the possibility of as minimum another test at 1.2580/1.2600 range, where it is recommended to evaluate the activity development of
Deal, NO Deal on US automakers sees wild JPY cross gyrations. EURUSD still not sending any clear signals. MAJOR HEADLINES – PREVIOUS SESSION Switzerland SNB lowered Libor Target Rate by 100 bps to 1.00% US Nov. Philadelphia Fed out a -39.3 vs. -35.0 expected Bank of Japan kept target rate at 0.30% as expected THEMES TO WATCH – UPCOMING SESSION Events Today: Germany Nov. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI (0830) EuroZone Nov. Preliminary Manufacturing and Services PMI (0900 ) Canada
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