EURO The euro moved higher vis-à-vis the U.S. dollar today as the single currency tested offers around the US$ 1.2585 level and was supported around the $1.2470 level. The common currency gained ground on a variety of factors. First, weekly U.S. initial jobless claims surged to their highest level in nearly sixteen years, up 27,000 to 542,000 while continuing jobless claims were at 4.012 million, the highest level since December 1982. These data suggest November non-farm payrolls
- The unremitting, disheartening economic news hammered US equity markets in the early going. The DJIA, S&P 500 and Nasdaq all traded at fresh multi-year lows. Indices are well off their worst levels and seen green, but around 10am the S&P 500 was 50% below its high in October, 2007, while the Nasdaq and DJIA were hitting levels last seen in early 2003. The latest bout of risk aversion was inspired by a toxic combination of deflation fears, Congressional inaction on the auto industry
Forex traders, join the daily All Things Forex broadcast- a live one hour program covering Forex and major economic events, trend developments, research, analysis, ideas, education, live traders forum, interviews with some of the most respected names in the trading world, and much more.. In the broadcast today: The AUD- a "value trap" or an opportunity? We analyze recent trend developments, we discuss the new FX Options Trade Alert from Trading Central, and prepare for the trading session
Tis the season for walking it a winter wonderland as Jack Frost nips at your nose or other extremities but really what is the first true sign that winter is here? Is frost on your window pane? Perhaps that first snow flake. Nah. It's really the first withdrawal in natural gas storage silly. I mean winter has not really begun until we start cutting into that storage supply. Now I know my readers love when I talk crude oil and we will get to that (be patient). But sometimes we have to touch on
The Rupee pared most of its losses, ending weaker, on heavy intervention by RBI. The USD/INR pair ended at 50.19 from 50.01 yesterday. The 6-month and 1-year forward premium was at 2.45% and 1.74% as compared at 2.48% and 1.80% yesterday. The Swiss franc fell to its lowest levels against the Dollar since August 2007, after a surprise 100 bps rate cut by SNB. EUR/USD was at 1.253 from 1.2633 yesterday and GBP/USD was at 1.4843 from 1.4961 yesterday. USD/JPY was at 95.64 versus 96.74
Every single day we have more reason to believe that the US unemployment rate will break 8 percent next year. Jobless claims rose to a 16 year high last week of 542k, driving the US dollar lower against the Japanese Yen. Continuing claims rose to 4.012 million, the highest level in close to 26 years. The most powerful aspect of today's report is the fact that the Veteran's Day Holiday usually pushes jobless claims down which suggests that if there wasn't a holiday, jobless claims could easily
What a day turned out to be yesterday, with markets taking a slump in New York and DOW JONES ending the day 400 points lower printing new multi year lows. Asian markets continued in the same manner and the same thing happened in European session. It is clear that traders continue to worry about the worsening global economic conditions and at the end whatever happens, risk aversion always wins! EUR/USD made an impressive turn too yesterday, after it hit intra day high at 1.2820. The move did
The United States is facing one of the most complicated moments in its history. The country is suffering a deep real estate recession that looks like becoming one of the worst ever experienced. Closely linked to this, a financial crisis has broken out that puts the survival of the existing financial system in doubt. On top of all this, the prospects of a recession are getting stronger and stronger. In the face of this situation, the whole world is becoming worried. The old saying that when the
Starting yesterday afternoon, U.S. equity markets experienced a steep drop that led to Asian and European markets selling off overnight. The resurgence of volatility and risk aversion has helped the U.S. dollar strengthen against all major currencies except the Japanese yen. Factors leading to yesterday's decline in equities included plunging U.S. consumer prices, record low housing starts, FOMC minutes that indicate the Fed is bracing itself for a long, protracted recession and possible
Key News •Oil prices fell below $53 to almost a two-year low . (AP) •The yield on two-year US Treasury bonds hit a record low of 1.06 per cent, responding both to the fresh flight to safety and the prospect of lower interest rates. Eurozone government bond futures hit their highest level since March 2006. (FT) •World stock markets tumbled Thursday, with benchmarks in Tokyo and Seoul losing almost 7 percent each. (AP) •Five years after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S.
The October estimate of consumer price index declined -1.0% (-0.961%) m/m and was up 3.7% y/y. The core ex-food and energy estimate fell -0.1%(-0.071%) m/m and is up 2.2%. The ex-food estimate saw a sharp drop of -1.2% m/m and the ex-energy component was flat for the month. Energy prices dropped -8.6% and prices in the services sector were also flat for the month.
Market Brief The headlines are far from comforting this morning. While currency price action is somewhat subdued global markets suffered a huge blow yesterday, momentum that has carried on into the Asian and European opening today. Futures, stocks, commodities are all sharply lower with the Japanese Nikkei 225 down a massive 7% this morning on continued widespread pessimism in the global economy. The critical factor is the continued uncertainty surrounding the TARP, which continues to be
● The dramatic worsening of the growth outlook throughout the eurozone has strengthened the call for fiscal stimulus, particularly suited to support activity at a time in which monetary policy risks being less effective than usual. ● Next year, budget deficits in the area’s largest economies will increase significantly, due to the effect of both automatic stabilizers and discretionary fiscal measures. A generalized breach of Maastricht criteria is in the cards, but we don’t see this as a
As Peter Schiff and I have long warned, America's reliance on borrowing and consumption to fuel economic activity would result in the wholesale destruction of national wealth. Until recently, the dissipation was largely invisible to most consumers. However, the ongoing plunge in real estate and equity prices and newly released statistics concerning retail sales, consumer confidence and employment have now made it plain to most Americans that their own wealth has been seriously, and perhaps
Overview: On Wednesday night the Federal Open Market Committee published the minutes of the October 28-29 monetary policy meeting. It is very clear from them that all committee members are highly aware of the state of financial markets and the outlook for growth. Indeed several members indicated that there is an increasing concern within the committee about deflation. The minutes suggest that further policy easing is very likely at the December meeting. We expect a 50bp cut to 0.50% in line
Danske Bank regularly surveys Danish public opinion on adopting the euro. For a long time our polls have suggested that any future vote on Denmark's participation in the single currency would be a close race. However, our latest poll - for November - shows a significant swing towards the Yes side: the share of those who said they would vote Yes to Danish EMU participation has increased from 40% in October to 44% in November. Meanwhile, the No side has shrunk from 41.7% in October to 37.8% in
FOMC Minutes October 28-29th 2008 Fed expects the economy to contract moderately in 2H08 and 1H09 and to overall grow at around zero in 2009 Some participants saw risks to the downside on inflation We expect an additional rate cut on December 16th, 2008 The staff reduced its forecast for economic activity in 2H08, 2009 and 2010. It expected GDP to contract in 4Q08. Moreover, it predicted “that real GDP would continue to contract somewhat in the first half of 2009 and then rise in the second
In a move which took everyone, ourselves included, by complete surprise, the Turkish central bank (TCMB) on Wednesday cut its key policy rate (the borrowing rate) by 50bp to 16.25%, and its less important lending rate by 100bp to 18.75%! We are very surprised by the bank's decision which we regard as a reckless and dangerous move likely to send the Turkish lira plummeting.
Although currencies ended up adopting their usual path of following the swings in risk appetite, it's worth explaining Wednesday's earlier spikes in EURUSD and GBPUSD. The moves were a result of broad dollar selling (also seen in a $25 rally jump in gold) on reports that Iran was pushing ahead with its nuclear program. The International Atomic Energy Agency found stated an increasing build up of enriched uranium stockpiles, which could be converted into weapons-grade material. Despite the Iran
London, 20 November 2008 - Trading conditions remain choppy in the precious complex with gold and silver jumping in late trade yesterday while the PGM’s have run into selling pressure overnight as recessionary fears hit equity sentiment. Equity market weakness led the Dow to lose 5% yesterday and follow through selling has spilled over into Asia with the Nikkei falling 6.9% and the Hang Seng 5.5%. The Euro settled at 1.2487 yesterday after spiking briefly to 1.2811 and has been trading around
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